The advisers contend that the country is far too closely divided to imagine a re-election scenario like 1996, when Bob Dole never came within striking distance of President Bill Clinton.
In 1996 the unemployment rate was 5.4%. Obama’s problem is not that the country is divided. Obama’s problem is that his economic policies stink outloud. In January 2009 unemployment was at 7.6%. Incredibly it has continued to rise under Obama, going as high as 10.1% and only recently coming down to 8.8%, still higher than when he took office. There seems to be this bizarre notion that the fate of ordinary Americans will have no consequences to America’s elites, both political and economic.
Back to Politico:
The biggest concerns include independent voters, who are fickle by definition, and Midwestern, blue-collar white men, who were the last demographic group to go along with Obama in 2008.
Well maybe Obama should get himself to the solidarity rallies in Wisconsin and Ohio, you know, where working class white men are currently hanging out?
Democratic officials are intently focused on three states that Obama won last time – Virginia, Colorado and Nevada – that provide different paths to victory as an alternative to the traditional dependence on Ohio and Florida. But they are also trying to replicate the bold map strategy of 2008 by eyeing Texas, Arizona and Georgia – three states he lost last time – as potential targets. Changing demographics in the three states have yielded hundreds of thousands of currently unregistered Hispanic voters who could be receptive to Obama.
This is just delusional. Obama wrote off Northern Virginia when he froze the pay of federal workers. Nor are the women of Northern Virginia happy with Obama’s anti-abortion policies, which will be a problem for Kaine since he is anti-stem cell research and probably anti-abortion. These were not issues when he ran for Governor, but they will be issues when he runs for Senate. Bobby Scott might be a stronger candidate in Northern Virginia. Doug Wilder won Northern Virginia in 1989 because he was pro-choice. The problem with Obama’s people is that none of them have any respect for women and therefore do not appreciate the seriousness of these issues.
Why does Obama think that Hispanics will vote for him? Under Obama deportations have increased. Combined with continuing high rates of unemployment, Hispanics have no reason to vote for Obama.
Obama may very well win reelection, but only because we have a deeply dysfunctional political culture.