The Virginia Senate race of 2012

#1, I live in DC, not Virginia

#2, I am not well informed about Virginia politics

Having said that, I think that this fellow is far too optimistic about the chances of winning in Virginia in 2012.

It is most unlikely that Obama can carry Virginia a second time. On January 20, 2009 unemployment was 6.1%, it is now 10%; moreover, by the time the House Republicans have succeeded in bullying the Dems into additional spending cuts, the economy will tank and the unemployment will be worse (which was the Republican strategy all along).

Obama is unpopular now and his action freezing federal pay will not win him any friends in Virginia. Obama will be a huge drag upon the rest of the ticket. Virginia Democrats will be hard pressed to defend their incumbents, nevermind hold an open seat.

George Allen’s blunder is now 6 years ago, so much water has passed under the bridge that most voters will not care very much. It is important to remember that in spite of his blunder Allan almost won reelection 6 years ago.

Having said all that, I suspect that Bobby Scott would be the strongest candidate Democrats could field. Scott has a wonderful easy going Virginia gentleman demeanor that is worth thousands of votes by itself. Tim Kaine by contrast has a truly weak persona that has made him such a disaster as DNC chair. Moreoever, he is a Catholic. This used to be a non-issue, but given Kaine’s opposition to stem cell research, there are legitimate questions about his willingness to put the constitution before his bishop. Also I think that Democratic women are passed tired of voting for anti-choice Democrats.

But what do I know, I don’t live in Virginia.

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