Ohio 2004

Odds of Bush win in Ohio ’04 1/9600, at best

I thank you for broaching the topic, but my conscience compels me not to thank you for the brevity with which you are treating the topic.

According tNational Election Data Archive at uscountvotes.org (NEDA), the odds of Bush winning Ohio in ’04 was no better than 1/9600, and as high as 1 in 16 million.

I dare you to contact NEDA, and run your argument past them. You might convince me if you got the mathematicians and statisticians at NEDA to agree that the poll results you mention somehow are of greater significance than exit poll data. Until you do that, you’re not going to convince me that the Presidential election wasn’t stolen in 2004, via Ohio.

The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precint-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount

Six Percent of Ohio’s polled precints Show Virtually Impossible Vote Counts, and Over 40% Show Improbable Vote Counts, Given Their Exit Poll Results. The Patterns Of Ohio’s Discrepancies Are Consisten With Outcome-Altering Vote Miscounts.Ohio’s exit poll discrepancy pattern includes three precincts with virtually impossible outcomes and an unusually high number of precincts with significant discrepancy.1
· 6% of Ohio’s precincts each have virtually zero chance (less than one in 15,000) of occurring
due to sampling error, given their Kerry official vote count.2 Even if the “within precinct
discrepancy” (WPD) is adjusted for all the precincts to remove any possible effect due to Kerry
voters completing more exit polls, the probability of obtaining Ohio’s exit poll discrepancies are
virtually impossible.3
· Over 40% of Ohio’s polled precincts have discrepancies having less than a 5% chance of
occurring, given the official vote counts.4 The expected number of such precincts in a sample of
49 precincts would be five such precincts, not the 20 found.
· Ohio’s exit poll discrepancies, when plotted against precinct exit poll share show a pattern that is
consistent with vote miscounts that benefited Bush, and
· The pattern of Ohio’s exit poll discrepancies cannot be explained by random sampling error or
partisan exit poll completion rate differences.


Ohio’s precinct-level exit polls over-estimated Kerry official vote by an average 5.8%. The overall
discrepancy between exit poll margin and official vote margin was double that, 11.7%.
On June 6, 2005 The Election Sciences Institute (ESI) with Mitofsky12 released a report on the Ohio
precinct level exit poll data purporting to rule out vote fraud as the cause of the discrepancies. The (ESI)
report entitled “Ohio Exit Polls: Explaining the Discrepancy” by Susan Kyle, Douglass A. Samuelson,
Fritz Scheuren, Nicole Vicinanza, Scott Dingman and Warren Mitofsky, concluded:
“…the data do not support accusations of election fraud in the Ohio Presidential election of 2004”.13
ESI’s premise is that if there were vote fraud, then the 2004 exit poll discrepancy would be correlated
with Bush vote share increases from the 2000 election. Finding no such correlation, ESI ruled out vote
fraud as an explanation of the exit poll discrepancies.14 ESI’s method of exit poll analysis was included
on October 14, 2005, in a presentation by Warren Mitofsky to the American Statistical Association fall
conference in a talk entitled “The 2004 U.S. Exit Polls”.
In an October 31st paper, NEDA mathematically proved that ESI’s and Mitofsky’s analyses were
incorrect because many counterexamples exist to its basic premise.15 In other words, NEDA proved
mathematically that ESI’s and Mitofsky’s analysis of Ohio’s and national exit poll data is of no
analytical value and no conclusions about the presence or absence of vote fraud can be drawn from

The ESI report had made no attempt to explain or mathematically analyze the actual 2004 exit poll
discrepancies and the ESI report was missing key data. To date, Mitofsky and ESI have provided no
explanation for the exit poll discrepancy that is supported by data and analysis

A history of election auditing (1975 – 2008) is here: http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAna…

Also, there’s enough up-to-date coverage of vote fraud issues at bradblog.com to make anybody puke….

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